Canada’s Housing Market in 2025: Opportunity or Uncertainty?
Prices Holding Steady… For Now
Despite shifting supply and demand, home prices remain remarkably stable. The MLS Home Price Index dipped by just 0.08% month-over-month, while the national average price rose 1.1% year-over-year to $670,064. However, this stability feels fragile. If trade tensions escalate, housing demand could take a hit, putting downward pressure on prices in affected regions.
Trade War Threat: A Game-Changer for Housing?
The biggest wildcard in the housing market right now is the potential U.S.-Canada trade war. Proposed tariffs
As we step into 2025, Canada’s housing market is sending mixed signals. On one hand, buyers are seeing a welcome surge in new listings, providing more choices and negotiating power. On the other, looming trade tensions with the U.S. threaten economic stability, casting a shadow over the market’s future. Let's break down the key trends shaping the real estate landscape and what they mean for buyers and sellers alike.
A Surge in Listings: A Buyer’s Market Emerging?
January brought a surprising 11% jump in new listings, the largest month-over-month increase in years (pandemic aside). This surge is particularly noticeable in competitive markets like British Columbia and Ontario, where sellers may be acting proactively in response to economic uncertainty. More listings mean more opportunities for buyers, who now have additional leverage in negotiations.
Sales Slow as Trade War Fears Set In
Despite the increase in available homes, national sales dipped by 3.3% in January, with the sharpest drop occurring towards the end of the month—right as headlines about potential U.S. tariffs dominated the news. While year-over-year sales are still up 2.9%, buyer hesitation is creeping in as economic uncertainty looms.
include a 25% tax on most Canadian exports and 10% on energy, which could hit Canada’s economy hard. This isn’t just about numbers—these tariffs could impact jobs, wages, and overall consumer confidence, particularly in trade-dependent cities.
Spring Market Outlook: A Balancing Act
CREA is still forecasting an 8.6% increase in home sales for 2025, citing lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand. Prices are expected to rise 4.7% by year-end, bringing the national average to $722,221. However, these projections were made before trade tensions escalated. If the trade war becomes a reality, the spring market could be far less active than predicted.
What Does This Mean for You?
The Canadian housing market is at a turning point. The surge in listings provides more opportunities for buyers, while sellers must navigate an increasingly competitive and uncertain landscape. Meanwhile, the looming trade war could upend market stability, making flexibility and strategic decision-making more critical than ever.
For buyers, this is a moment of opportunity—more inventory means better choices and potentially better deals. For sellers, timing and strategy will be key to maximizing value in an evolving market.
MARCH 13-16, 2025 | BC Place Stadium
I have FREE tickets available for the BC Home & Garden Show
I will be at the show on March 15th from 11-1 pm this year with my wife Samantha from Kleen Design, if you have any design questions or would just like to connect for a drink, text me when you are at the show...
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Buyers gaining upper hand in Fraser Valley real estate market
SURREY, BC — For the first time in four months, home sales in the Fraser Valley have increased as buyers capitalize on more selection and weakening prices.
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board recorded 920 sales in February, up 13 per cent from January, but 26 per cent below sales recorded in February 2024.
Despite a nine per cent drop in newly listed homes on the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), new listings remained 14 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average, at 3,121. Overall inventory remains high, at 8,070 active listings, 45 per cent above February 2024 and 55 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average.
The overall sales-to-active listings ratio continues to signal a buyer’s market in the Fraser Valley, with a ratio of 11 per cent. The market is considered to be balanced with the ratio is between 12 per cent and 20 per cent.
Homes across the Fraser Valley sold in fewer days in February compared to January. The average number of days to sell a single-family detached home was 39, while for a condo it was 36. Townhomes took, on average, 32 days to sell.
The composite Benchmark price in the Fraser Valley dipped less than a quarter of a per cent in February, down 0.2 per cent to $962,500.
For the latest statistics package click HERE
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