Market stats Fraser Valley Real Estate

The governments of Canada and British Columbia have a message for you: this is not a bailout.

Don't believe them.

In the spring of 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier David Eby stood side by side to announce a $3.2 billion plan — the centerpiece of which is the purchase of more than 2,200 vacant, unsold condo units across Metro Vancouver. The federal government's Build Canada Homes agency and BC Housing will acquire these units from private developers and convert them into "affordable housing." The program is framed as a creative solution to a housing shortage.

But here's what it actually is: taxpayers bailing out developers who overbuilt, overpriced, and are now stuck holding inventory they can't sell.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Let's start with the scale of the problem. As of early 2025, there were approximately 4,376 completed condos sitting empty in Metro Vancouver — a staggering 76% increase from the year prior. One third of those units are priced above $1 million. The market has clearly spoken: buyers aren't buying at these prices.

So what do the developers do? They don't lower their prices. They go to government.

And the government comes running — to the tune of $3.2 billion in direct measures, plus a commitment of more than $5 billion from the federal government into BC's local infrastructure through the Build Communities Strong Fund over the next decade. Development charges on new multi-unit housing could be reduced by up to 50%, saving builders as much as $40,000 per unit — also funded by the public purse.

The specific per-unit purchase price the government will pay for those 2,200 condos? The federal housing ministry hasn't told us yet. They say they'll work it out "in the coming weeks." Details on what rents will be charged to tenants won't come until fall.

In other words: we're committing billions, but we'll tell you what we're spending later.

"Developers Don't Want to Sell at a Loss"

That line came directly from Prime Minister Carney at the announcement. Read it again.

Developers don't want to sell at a loss.

Since when does not wanting to take a loss entitle you to have the government buy you out at a price that protects your margins? That is not how a free market works. That is not how accountability works. And in any other industry, that is not how business works.

When a restaurant over-orders food and it goes bad, no one reimburses the chef. When a retailer over-stocks a product that doesn't sell, they markdown and move on. When developers in Metro Vancouver overbuild luxury condos during a market they misread, they get a call from the Prime Minister and a cheque from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

The playing field has never been more uneven — and it's you, the ordinary BC taxpayer, renting or trying to buy a home at market prices, who is levelling it for them.

A Word for What This Really Is: Moral Hazard

Steve Eisman — the investor made famous in The Big Short for predicting the 2008 US housing collapse — had a memorable take on this plan. He called it "moral hazard on steroids," and said it was worse than the 2008 American subprime fiasco.

Why? Because when you socialize losses and privatize gains, you don't just solve the problem in front of you — you guarantee the next one. You send a message to every developer in the country: build aggressively, price ambitiously, and if the market doesn't cooperate, the government will be there to clean it up. Taxpayers will absorb the downside so you never have to.

That is what moral hazard means. And right now, BC and Ottawa are writing it into policy.

What About the "Affordable Housing" We're Getting in Return?

Supporters of the plan argue that at least we're getting something: 2,200 units of affordable housing in one of the most expensive cities in the world. That's not nothing.

But it's worth asking some hard questions:

Who defines "affordable"? The government hasn't released rent levels. Remember: a third of the vacant units cost over a million dollars to build. If the government is paying close to market value for those units (which, again, we don't know yet), achieving genuinely below-market rents means subsidizing every single tenant indefinitely. Forever.

What does this do to the rental market? Vancouver's rental market has actually been softening. The overall vacancy rate in Metro Vancouver rose to its highest level in over 30 years in 2025. Rents for condos and purpose-built rentals fell by 15.1% compared to 2023. November 2025 marked the 24th consecutive month of annual rent declines.

In a market that is already correcting — naturally, organically, through supply and demand — the government is stepping in to prevent the bottom from falling further. Not for renters. For developers.

What does this do to the condo market itself? Purchasing 2,200 of the roughly 4,376 vacant units removes nearly half of Metro Vancouver's unsold supply. That's not clearing a glut — that's propping up a price floor. It signals to the market that the government will intervene before prices are allowed to fall to where ordinary people can actually afford them.

The Local Government Problem

Here's something else: municipal governments aren't cheering either. The deal was negotiated between Victoria and Ottawa without meaningful consultation with the cities and municipalities who will actually be managing these converted buildings and the communities around them. Local governments have their own infrastructure pressures, and absorbing hundreds of subsidized rental units into neighbourhoods without coordination creates its own set of challenges.

It's a top-down fix to a problem that required bottom-up understanding.

Who's Paying for This?

You are. I am. Every working British Columbian filing a tax return is.

When the government purchases 2,200 condo units at or near market prices from developers who "don't want to sell at a loss," it is transferring wealth from the public to a private industry that made speculative bets and lost. It is locking in the developers' profit — or at least limiting their loss — while leaving the taxpayer holding an asset portfolio of overpriced condos with no disclosed management plan and no confirmed rent structure.

And then there's the broader $3.2 billion in infrastructure subsidies designed to reduce development costs by up to 50%. That's money that won't be going to schools, healthcare, roads, or any of the other things government is supposed to do.

My Take: No. This Is Not Right.

I work in real estate. I believe in the market. I believe in the importance of housing supply. And I believe that getting more rental units built and occupied in Metro Vancouver is genuinely important.

But I do not believe that the right way to achieve that goal is to protect developers from the consequences of their own decisions at the expense of ordinary taxpayers.

A fair market means bearing your own risk. If developers overbuilt and overpriced, the correct outcome is that they reduce their prices until the market clears — which, in turn, brings home prices down closer to what real people can actually pay. That is the correction British Columbians have been waiting years for.

Instead, we're getting a government intervention designed specifically to prevent that correction from happening — to "clear off the overhang," in the Prime Minister's own words, without allowing prices to fall.

That's not housing policy. That's a bailout.

Call it what it is.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board released its May 2026 numbers, and the story this month is not about a market that is surging or crashing. It is about a market that is quietly creating real opportunity for the right buyers -- particularly those with existing equity who have been waiting for the right time to move up.

Let's break this down.

The Fraser Valley recorded 1,124 sales in May, up slightly from April but still about five per cent below where we were this time last year. Sales activity remains measured, and much of the caution in the market right now comes down to economic uncertainty, job security concerns, and the general pressure of higher everyday costs. First-time buyers have largely stepped back. Move-up buyers, however, are stepping forward.

The reason is straightforward. Detached home prices have come down enough that buyers who already own a home and have built equity are finding themselves able to reach a segment of the market that was simply out of range a few years ago. That is a meaningful shift.

Here is what the numbers look like on benchmark pricing.

The composite benchmark price for a typical Fraser Valley home sits at $893,300, down 0.7 per cent from April and about seven per cent below where it was a year ago.

Single-family detached homes are benchmarking at $1,366,500, down 0.6 per cent from last month and down 7.9 per cent year-over-year.

Townhomes are at $769,500, down 0.3 per cent month-over-month and 7.6 per cent below May 2025.

Apartments are at $483,800, down 1.5 per cent from April and 8.8 per cent below this time last year.

On the supply side, there are 10,140 active listings in the Fraser Valley right now, which is well above historical norms and giving buyers a strong selection to choose from. New listings actually fell both month-over-month and year-over-year in May, which tells us some sellers are holding off, waiting for conditions to improve before they list. That does not mean good properties aren't hitting the market -- it just means the sellers who are listing right now tend to be serious.

The sales-to-active listings ratio sits at 11 per cent. For context, a balanced market is typically between 12 and 20 per cent. We are in buyer's market territory, and buyers who are financially prepared are finding some of the most favourable conditions this market has offered in some time.

Average days to sell were 35 days for detached homes, 37 days for townhomes, and 40 days for condos. Properties are moving -- just not overnight. Pricing and presentation still matter enormously.

Here's the reality -- if you own a home in the Fraser Valley and have been thinking about making a move into something larger, the math is worth looking at right now. Prices in the detached segment are down, inventory is up, and you are not competing against a wave of aggressive buyers. That combination does not come around often.

If you are a first-time buyer sitting on the sidelines, it is worth checking in with a mortgage broker about where you actually stand. The entry points in the condo and townhome segments have improved meaningfully over the past year.

If you are a seller, the market is still moving. Properties that are priced correctly and show well are getting attention. The buyers who are active right now are serious.

If you are looking for a local real estate expert in South Surrey, White Rock, or the Fraser Valley to help you get ahead in the market, feel free to reach out. I am here to help.

You have probably seen the headlines. Bank of Canada could cut rates. Inflation is still a problem. Fixed mortgage rates are creeping higher again. It sounds contradictory, and that is because the two things are not connected the way most people think.

Here is what is actually going on.

Let's break this down.

Variable-rate mortgages move with the Bank of Canada's overnight rate. When the Bank cuts, your variable rate drops. When they hold, it holds. That part is fairly straightforward.

Fixed-rate mortgages are a different story entirely. Fixed rates are driven by Government of Canada bond yields, particularly the 5-year bond. Bond yields do not wait for the Bank of Canada to meet. They move every single day based on inflation data, employment numbers, economic growth expectations, government spending, and what is happening globally. This is why your lender can quietly raise fixed-rate pricing even when the Bank of Canada has not touched their policy rate.

Over the past few weeks, that is exactly what has happened.

Canada recently reported weaker employment numbers, including approximately 46,000 full-time job losses and rising unemployment. Normally, softer economic data puts downward pressure on bond yields, which should help fixed rates. But inflation pressures are still lingering, and that is creating conflicting signals. Oil prices, tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply chain issues are all keeping inflation concerns alive. Some economists have even started using the word stagflation again -- slower growth combined with persistent inflation.

On top of all of this, the Bank of Canada is watching the U.S. Federal Reserve closely. Markets increasingly expect American rates to stay elevated if their inflation does not cool quickly, and that continues to put upward pressure on Canadian bond yields and lender pricing.

Here's the reality -- the media tends to collapse all of this into "rates up" or "rates down," but the actual picture right now is far more nuanced.

Here's what that means for you.

If you are a buyer, volatility with fixed rates is likely to continue through the summer. Even small rate changes affect what you qualify for and what you can comfortably afford. Variable-rate products are becoming part of the conversation again because they are currently qualifying at lower rates than many fixed options, which can meaningfully improve purchasing power for some buyers.

The challenge with that is the decision is not just about which rate is lowest today. Portability, prepayment penalties, flexibility, and your plans for the next three to five years all matter. If there is any chance you move, renovate, or refinance during your term, those details can cost you far more than a small rate difference ever would.

If you are still actively shopping, many lenders still offer rate holds for up to 120 days. That can give you real protection while you are searching in a market that continues to shift quickly.

Bottom line -- now more than ever, the conversation with your mortgage broker matters. Not just to find the lowest rate, but to build the right strategy for your situation.

If you are looking for a local real estate expert in South Surrey, White Rock, or the Fraser Valley to help you get ahead in the market, feel free to reach out. I am here to help.